Hello followers!
After a busy 2023 filled with 18 races last year, I’m thrilled to finally be back on the starting line for the 2024 season! While my primary focus this year is crushing the Snowdonia Marathon Eryri with a target time of 3h40m, I’m still aiming for personal bests in every race I run along the way.
Up first is the Trowse 10k! This will be my second time tackling this challenging course, a two-lapper with a significant hill that needs to be conquered twice. Last year, I managed a personal best of 40 minutes and 20 seconds on this course. This year, I’ve set my sights even higher, aiming to crack the sub-40 minute mark! Consequently, I plugged this ambitious 40-minute target time into TrainAsONE to hone my training specifically to try and achieve this.
Training for this race has been anything but easy. Due to personal and work commitments, I got off to a bit of a slow start this season. Six weeks of full training followed by a one-week taper wasn’t ideal, but I made the most of it. To compensate for the shorter training window, I crammed in a full seven days a week schedule, and gave no time constraints to TrainAsONE on how much I could train on each day. Between that and my tough target time, the training has not been easy with a week-on-week increase in volume and fast paces. I don’t mind admitting that my easy runs have not felt easy, and I’ve not always been able to hit my specified paces – but I did my best. Despite this, I was feeling good about my running.
However, as I entered my taper phase last week, things started to feel less positive. The expected lethargy from reduced training has made my runs feel very tough. Yesterday’s supposed “easy” 20-minute run turned into a real struggle, especially the first five minutes! But I’m trying to stay positive and trust the training process.
So, what are my predicted times for tomorrow?
| Algorithm | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) | % Difference from 40:00 target (negative is slower) |
| Riegel (3.2 km assessment) | 4:30 | 45:00 | – 10.8 % |
| Riegel (6 min assessment) | 4:26 | 44:20 | – 9.6 % |
| Running Watch | 4:05 | 40:47 | – 1.9 % |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:04 | 40:41 | – 1.5 % |
| TrainAsONE | 4:02 (3:58) | 40:23 (39:40) | – 1.0 % (+ 0.8%) |
Looking at the Riegel predictions alongside my performance last year of 40:20 and my subjective feeling today, I believe I can discount them – even if I don’t achieve a sub 40 minute 10 km tomorrow, I’m sure I won’t be that far off!
The fact that the other platforms all predict a finish within 2% of my target time gives me a confidence boost. And a little more so, when looking at my predictions against this time last year.
| Algorithm | 2023 Time (mm:ss) | 2024 Time (mm:ss) | % Difference (negative is slower) |
| Running Watch | 42:10 | 40:47 | + 3.0 % |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 40:40 | 40:41 | – 0.0 % |
| TrainAsONE | 40:28 | 40:23 | + 0.2 % |
Interestingly my Running Watch is predicting a 3% improvement over last year’s prediction. This might just be an update to their algorithm, but I’m going with the thought that there’s something in my data that indicates improved fitness.
And with TrainAsONE predicting a slightly better time than last year (and with a lower range of 39:40), I think ‘the race is on’!
Finally, let’s talk about the weather. The forecast for tomorrow is 13°C with sunny intervals, which sounds perfect! The only concern is the possibility of gusty winds exceeding 40 mph. Here’s hoping those gusts are infrequent!
Wish me luck! I’ll be sure to follow up after the race and let you all know how I did.
