Will this be 3rd time lucky for my attempt on a sub-40 minute 10 km personal record? Find out what the predictions say.
Tomorrow I am running the 9th event of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix, the Humpty Dumpty 10k. This is a 10 km road race organised by Great Yarmouth & District Athletic Club. According to the race entry page on Total Race Timing, there are still places available and as you collect race bibs on the day, there’s still time to enter if you like and can make it.
My assumption is that the race is so called after the Humpty Dumpty Brewery, located in Reedham, the village that the race starts and end in. Presumably any post-race goodies are sponsored by them.
I’ve never ran this race before, but having completed the Reedham 10 mile back in February (read my race report), which was in the same area, I believe the route description of ‘a gently undulating course on country lanes’ is highly accurate.
Presently the forecast for tomorrow is 17/18° C with sunny intervals and a moderate breeze. Nothing like the hot conditions of my last race, the Lotus Test Track 10k, and almost ideal racing conditions.
Predictions
Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources.
| Algorithm | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:37 | 46:10 |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:20 | 43:20 |
| Running Watch | 4:13 | 42:09 |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:07 | 41:09 |
| Riegel (10 km Race) | 4:06 | 41:04 |
| TrainAsONE | 4:03 | 40:26 |
Since my last race, I have not performed any fast assessments, and so my Riegel predictions based on these remain unchanged since last time, with their very pessimistic values.
My Running Watch indicates that my fitness has further declined, and now predicting my 10 km time as 42:09. This is slower than my Lotus Test Track time (in the heat) and I’m confident that this is inaccurate. Though it is still only an error of around 5%, so one can’t be too critical.
Interestingly, the Athlete Data Analysis Platform has suddenly reversed it’s continued estimate of declining fitness. And with a time of 41:09, it is only 5 seconds away from my performed Lotus Test Track time (in the heat…).
As would be expected the Riegel calculation based upon my last race is not that informative. I ran 10 km in 41:04 and so it is predicted that I can run 10 km in 41:04…
TrainAsONE is predicting a time of 40:26. Whilst this is a fraction slower than the last prediction, it seems much more realistic.
So in summary I think that the course, weather forecast and TrainAsONE’s prediction, all adds up to the possibility of a fast race, (and importantly) a decent attempt at a sub-40 minute time.
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)
