Has my training been strained and unproductive and will the conditions be favourable for a sub-40 minute PR run?
Most races are organised for a Sunday morning, but tomorrow is a Friday, and unusually I have a race – The Lotus Test Track 10k. Hosted by Harling Athletics Club, this is a 10 km race around the test circuit located at the Group Lotus headquarters near Hethel, Norfolk, UK. It is race number 8 of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix.
I have never run this race before and I don’t have any detailed information regarding the course. Apparently the full test-track circuit is 2.2 miles (~ 3.5 km), but we are running 2.5 km laps, so clearly short-cuts are in operation. I’m assuming it’s basically a flat track, and so barring the heat which is currently predicted to be around 21° C, it should be ideal for a fast run.
Training
My watch states that my training has been strained and unproductive – I do not agree!
It’s been just under 5 weeks since my last race, the Dereham 10 Mile (read my race report) where I achieved a big personal record. On the whole, training has gone to plan, though due to personal and work commitments I have had to cut short some runs and drop a few speed sessions. Despite this my watch states that my last week 4 weeks has been a wholly strained and unproductive block of training. Something that is not supported by my TrainAsONE data, and the fact that I achieved a Parkrun personal course record last weekend.
Below is a summary of my weekly run distances and duration, showing how my volume has dropped over the last two weeks of taper, with this final week falling to around 50% of my pre-taper values. My overall median run distance has been 5.8 km with a median duration of 31 minutes.
Predictions
Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources.
| Algorithm / Source | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:37 | 46:10 |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:20 | 43:20 |
| Running Watch | 4:12 | 42:04 |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:11 | 41:50 |
| Riegel (10 mile Race) | 4:01 | 40:10 |
| TrainAsONE | 4:01 | 40:05 |
As is usual for me, my 6 min and 3.2 km assessment predictions appear to be very pessimistic about my potential performance. With my most recent 10 km time of 40m28s just 6 weeks ago, conditions aside, I am sure I can repeat (or hopefully exceed) that result.
My watch and the athlete data analysis platform state that I am less fit that 6 weeks ago!
Both my Running Watch and the Athlete Data Analysis Platform are predicting similar times of around 42 minutes. For the same reason as above, I believe I can do better. Additionally, it should be noted that for my last 10 km race, these systems predicted better times than they do for tomorrow – by over 1 minute, i.e. they believe I am less fit now than 6 weeks ago. I really don’t think this is the case, especially to that degree! I am beginning to loose more and more faith in the analysis provided by these other systems…
The Riegel prediction based on my last race (my 10 mile PR race 5 weeks ago) is 40m10s. Given how well that race went (with such a big improvement in my PR), I was hoping that Riegel would place me below 40 mins. Still, with my 10 km PR currently at 40m20s, taking 10 seconds off would be great.
This is the fastest 10 km prediction that TrainAsONE has ever given me
At 5 seconds faster, TrainAsONE is predicting a near identical time to Riegel. Again it would be nice to have seen this prediction below 40 minutes. However, this is the fastest 10 km prediction that TrainAsONE has ever given me, so I cannot grumble.
So it’s looking positive for a 40 minute attempt! I think the only hindrance could be the weather. I don’t cope too well in hot temperatures, but hopefully it will be a degree or two less than predicted to make near-perfect conditions.
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)
