Tomorrow I am running the 12th event of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix, the Great Yarmouth Half Marathon. This is a half marathon (13.1 mile) road race organised by Great Yarmouth Road Runners. According to the race entry page on Total Race Timing, there are still a few places available and as you collect race bibs on the day, it seems that there’s still time to enter if you can make it.
I have never run this race before (in fact I have never run a race around Great Yarmouth), and the race website simply describes the route as ‘undulating’, so I do not have much idea of what to expect or any impact on race times. So tomorrow will be a bit of a new experience for me.
On the warm side, and a little ‘too sticky’ for my liking…
Presently the forecast for tomorrow is 19/20° C with light cloud and a moderate breeze, but with a humidity of 70%. On the warm side, and a little ‘too sticky’ for my liking…
Predictions
Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources.
| Algorithm | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) | Percentage slower than fastest prediction |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:42 | 99:19 | 9.5 % |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:32 | 95:38 | 6.0 % |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:25 | 93:13 | 3.5 % |
| Running Watch | 4:22 | 92:05 | 2.4 % |
| Riegel (5 mile race) | 4:17 | 90:13 | 0.4 % |
| TrainAsONE | 4:16 | 89:52 | – |
As is the usual pattern for me, the Riegel assessments indicate times quite a lot slower than all the other predictions. There is one interesting observation here. I carried out the 6 minute variant only 3 days ago, reaching 1.494 km over the allotted time. This was my best performance this year, and yet it is still indicating a time way outside of the other algorithms, and nearly 10 % slower than TrainAsONE’s prediction.
According to Running Watch, my previously ‘apparent’ dropping fitness has now stabilised (I placed apparent in quotes as this did not correlate with race times). However, the Athlete Data Analysis Platform has decided that I am not as fit. Who to believe… For this race, both their predictions are 2 to 3 percent outside of TrainAsONE’s and Riegel (5 mile race). This is par for the course.
As is becoming to be expected, TrainAsONE and Riegel (race) are in very close agreement. And with a time of around 90 minutes, I am very excited but equally nervous for tomorrow…
My personal record is 94m20s way back in 2009.
In total I have ran 20 half marathons, with my personal record being 94m20s way back in 2009. I have only finished under 95 minutes one other time. This was 7 years ago in 2016, and since then my times have become progressively slower and stagnated at around 100 minutes. Whilst I completed my last half during the spring of this year (in a time of 1h45m02s), it was more of a casual run due to an upcoming 20 mile race. So my last ‘competitive best-effort’ half marathon was October of last year. I completed this in a time of 1:40:33.
There is the real possibility of achieving a massive personal record.
Hence my excitement and apprehension for tomorrow. There is the real possibility of achieving a massive personal record.
As with all the recent races, the conditions will be the deciding factor on exactly how well things go. Consequently, I will need to run to the conditions. My first priority is a new personal record to come in under 94 minutes. If the heat and humidity permit, then I’ll naturally be aiming for nearer the 90 minutes – which seems mad given it will be 10 minutes faster than all my other recent half marathons.
The conditions will be the deciding factor on exactly how well things go.
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)
