Report on my Aylsham 10k race, where TrainAsONE predicted my time down to the second!
Last Sunday (7th May 2023), I ran the Aylsham 10k. As mentioned in my pre-race article, this is a 10 km road race hosted by Aylsham Runners, and takes place around the quiet roads of the village of Aylsham, Norfolk, England.
Unlike my previous race, I was up, breakfasted and ready in good time. And I left the house for the 40 minute drive to Aylsham with plenty of time to find parking and collect my race number. Following a few chats with fellow runners we made our way to the start and I positioned myself about 10 metres from the starting pack. There were no specific corrals, and it was a case of positioning alongside similarly capable competitors that I recognised from other local races.
Going sub-40 minutes was the target for today
The temperature was around 16 C, so it did not feel cold as we waited for the roads to be confirmed clear, so we could start. Along with the lack of wind, it seemed perfect racing conditions and I was heavily focused on my 4:00 min/km pace – going sub-40 minutes was the target for today.
My Race
As expected, the initial few hundred metres were downhill, followed by a relatively flat section to complete the first kilometre. As I passed this first marker, I glanced at my watch, 3:52. I was 8 seconds ahead of schedule. Knowing that the finish was at the top of the hill I had just ran down, I knew I would need those 8 seconds!
I needed to pass the half-way point as close to 20 minutes as possible
The second kilometre was run in an uneventful 4:01 time. I kept the effort going and I crossed the 3 km marker at 11:57. Only 3 seconds ahead now, I mentally told myself that I needed to put a little extra effort in as I did not want to slip much further. However, and I don’t know why as there were no real hills, I passed the 4th k’ 3 seconds behind schedule – somehow I had lost 6 seconds. I told myself that I could not let that happen again, and I needed to pass the half-way point as close to 20 minutes as possible.
1 second ahead of schedule and only 4 kilometres to go
5 km. Half way. 20 minutes and 1 second. I had reversed the trend. I kept the effort going and was rewarded with a repeat 3:58 min/km pace for the 6th kilometre. I was now 1 second ahead of schedule and only 4 kilometres to go, but my legs were beginning to tire. I can do this! I kept telling myself.
There’s no denying it, during that 7th kilometre things began to get much more difficult and despite feeling that I was heading for another 4:00ish min/km split, I crossed the marker four seconds behind schedule.
Not the end of the world, I said to myself, I can still do this. Unfortunately the eighth kilometre had a little hill in it. Despite all my efforts it slowed me down to an average time of 4:07 for this stage. I was now 11 seconds behind. With knowledge of the final hill, I was starting to think the sub-40 was not going to happen.
Then we hit another hill!
Then we hit another hill! Not good. I pushed up with all I could, and then tried to recover some time on the downhill, but the 9 km marker remained elusive and I eventually crossed it at 36m26s. I was now 26 seconds off my target.
The sub-40 was now out of my mind and it was a case of running for all I was worth to try and claw back some time to sneak in below 40:20 for a PR. There was a nice little down section before that final hill. I got a good pace going, but that last climb was too much for my tired legs and despite a 4:02 finishing kilometre, I crossed the line in an unofficial time of 40:31. Today was not the day for any records from me.
My official chip time was 40:28.
Analysis
TrainAsONE was spot on, predicting my exact race time.
Below is a table illustrating the various predictions for the race, along with their error from my actual performance.
| Algorithm | Predicted Pace (min/km) | Predicted Time (mm:ss) | Error (seconds) | Error (percent) |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:39 | 46:30 | + 362 | + 14.9 % |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:38 | 46:15 | + 347 | + 14.3 % |
| Running Watch | 4:13 | 42:10 | + 102 | + 4.2 % |
| Data Analysis Platform | 4:04 | 40:40 | +12 | + 0.5 % |
| TrainAsONE | 4:03 | 40:28 | 0 | 0 % |
As with previous races, we see that the Riegel predictions using my assessment runs were quite inaccurate. Too inaccurate to have any real use in race strategy preparation.
However, the other algorithms, all with predictions within 5 % were far more accurate, and potentially useful.
Particular note goes to TrainAsONE, predicting my exact race time to the second.
Finishing Up
No algorithm predicted that I could realistically hit 40 minutes, so my official time of 40:28 is no failure on anyone’s part. And whilst not a personal record, I believe that pushing hard to chase that 40 minute goal and having those hills in the latter stages of the race, are probably the main contributing factors. Something I am not disheartened about.
With continued training I’m sure a personal record is not far away, and that sub-40 is certainly achievable. My next 10k is in 5 weeks time, so not long to wait and I’ll be having another crack at it…
As ever, a big thank you to the race organisers, volunteers and all those involved. A great race. Thank you.
Till next time.
