Race Day Tomorrow – Aylsham 10k

After 4 weeks of hard training, I'm cautiously optimistic that I can hit my 40 minute target, despite all the predictions indicating I might fall short.

Following four weeks of heavy training, it’s race day again tomorrow. This time it is the Aylsham 10k, the sixth race in the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix, and a 10 km road race hosted by Aylsham Runners. Described as ‘a fast and scenic 10k road race around very quiet lanes on the edge of the lovely rural town of Aylsham’ (in mid Norfolk, UK).

I need all the help I can get

I have never run this event before, however, I have done a couple of races that were held nearby, and so feel that I have a good idea of what to expect. As a recap, following my last race (see my Trowse 10k Race Report) I set myself the goal of training for another PR, with the aim of going sub 40 minutes for Aylsham. So I’m glad the description states ‘fast’, as I need all the help I can get.

Training

The last 4 weeks of training has been tough on the legs. TrainAsONE has had me out every day, with a good mix of runs, incorporating a few interval sessions and a couple of long runs thrown in for good measure. As expected, my legs have felt quite heavy the last couple of weeks, and it was only during this morning’s run that they started to feel more spritely. Fingers crossed another 24 hours of rest, and they will be raring to go!

Below is a chart illustrating my weekly distance and duration of running in the lead up to this race. The key take-away is that there was a steady increase in training volume, and then a 50% drop for the final week to allow for recovery in preparation for tomorrow.

My median (average) run duration has been 34 minutes.

Next is a chart summarising the durations of my runs, illustrating that the majority (two thirds) of my runs have been less than 45 minutes. The median (average) was 34 minutes.

Predictions

Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources. I find the prediction from the Data Analysis Platform interesting.This is because, for my previous 10 km it predicted a time of 44:20, i.e. 4 minutes slower than I ran. So it is interesting that on this occasion it would appear to be a lot closer to my likely time.

Algorithm	Pace (min/km)	Time (mm:ss)
Riegel (3.2 km Assessment)	4:39	46:30
Riegel (6 min Assessment)	4:38	46:15
Running Watch	4:13	42:10
Data Analysis Platform	4:04	40:40
TrainAsONE	4:03	40:28
Riegel (10 km Race)	4:02	40:20

Naturally for me, the important prediction is from TrainAsONE. Unfortunately, it is stating a most likely time of 40m28s, i.e. outside of my 40 minute target. However, it is over 30 seconds faster than the prediction for my previous 10 km race. Furthermore, analysis of the error ranges would indicate that there is still a 38.7% chance of running 40 minutes or faster. Odds I’m willing to take. 🙂

Wish me luck!

(I’ll let you know how it goes.)