Can I match TrainAsONE’s prediction for tomorrow’s 5k, and achieve a 7th personal record for the year?
Hot on the heels of last weekend’s half marathon at Great Yarmouth (spoiler, I got a 3 minute personal record!) we have the Dereham 5k. Hosted by Dereham Runners AC, this is a two lap 5 kilometre road race around the mid-Norfolk market town of Dereham. This is the second race of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix to be hosted by Dereham Runners, and furthermore the second race this year that I have participated in previously. I have run it 4 times before, so I know what to expect. And whilst it is a fun race that keeps me coming back, I cannot help but have a dislike for the number of corners, especially the 180° hairpin at 1.7 and then again at 4.0 kilometres – they really disrupt my rhythm and slow me down. At least it is flat, making for an overall fast course.
My hopes are high for a new course record
In previous years, my times have generally hovered just below the 21 minute mark. Though last year I managed to sneak a personal course record by a mere 2 seconds, with a time of 20m35s. Given how my racing has gone this year, including grabbing a 5k personal record at the Wroxham 5k six weeks ago, my hopes are high for a new course record. Who knows, maybe even a new personal record?
The forecast for tomorrow is cloudy with a temperature of 18/19° C, with a humidity of 80%. The temperature here at present is similar, but with a lower humidity at 60%. And I’ve not long been back from my run this morning (a 12 minute easy run around the block) and it felt very muggy. Fingers crossed that the short nature of a 5 km race, will not give time for the high humidity to have too much effect.
Predictions
Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources.
| Algorithm | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) | Percentage difference from fastest |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:19 | 21:35 | – 10.6 % |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:10 | 20:50 | – 7.4 % |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:05 | 20:25 | – 5.6 % |
| Riegel (Half Marathon Race) | 3:59 | 19:55 | – 3.5 % |
| Running Watch | 3:58 | 19:52 | – 2.8 % |
| TrainAsONE | 3:51 | 19:16 | – |
Given that I ran a 5 km 6 weeks ago in under 19m30s, I would say that a sub 20 minute time tomorrow is ‘a given’. Consequently, I think the Riegel predictions based on the assessments and the Athlete Data Analysis Platform (ADAP) estimates can be discounted.
TrainAsONE is calculating a faster time than my record set only 6 weeks ago
Over the season, for the main part my Running Watch has provided predictions very similar to ADAP, though not on this occasion. Interestingly, it is estimating a time quicker than Riegel (race). However, it is still predicting a time nearly 3 % slower than TrainAsONE’s prediction.
So TrainAsONE is calculating a faster time than my record set only 6 weeks ago. Fingers crossed that the weather is kind and those hairpins don’t slow me down too much…
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)
