After 15 years of trying, would I finally race 5k in under 20 minutes?
The end of another busy week and I am only just managing to put together my write-up of my Wroxham 5k race. As the saying goes, ‘better late than never’, so here it is…
The Wednesday evening before last (July 5th), I ran the Wroxham 5k. As per my pre-race article, this was a 5 km road race, the 10th event of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Pix, and organised by Norwich Road Runners. It is a popular race, attracting well over 1,000 runners from across the country – the winning female, Isabel Rodriquez, lives in Birmingham. No doubt a significant contributor to the race’s appeal is the flat nature of the route, making it a fast course, and consequently good for personal records.
During the day, I kept checking the weather forecast as I felt this would be a deciding factor in how close to my predicted sub- 19:30 time I could manage. Though given that I had been wanting to run sub-20 minutes for many many years, that was the time I did not want to miss. The forecast remained ‘sunny intervals with a moderate breeze and a temperature of 18° C’, so all was looking good.
As I left the house to drive to Wroxham, the car was reading 19° C. Upon arriving at the event car park, instead of dropping the temperature had increased to 20° C. Without a cloud in the sky and the sun shining, it was feeling quite hot. Not the conditions I wanted, but surely not too hot to affect my performance significantly over the distance.
My Race
However, I did not need to worry as whilst waiting in the starting corral for the race to begin, the clouds began to roll in with a cool gentle breeze and by the time of the ‘off’ it was already noticeably cooler. Almost perfect conditions, let’s do this!
As I crossed the timing mats I started my watch and focused hard on trying to have a well paced start. A little slower than 3:50 min/km was the target. As is particularly the case with short races like 5k’s, one has to be diligent and not get carried away with the crowds. It is all too easy to get pulled by the other runners and go out too quickly. But equally you can’t afford to set off too slowly, as there will be no time to play catch-up. And with a race of such a size it all seems like a manic and frenzied dash.
Despite my legs, which were still a little tired from my 10km race only 3 days previously, I felt pretty much in control and passed the 1 k marker in a time of 3:49. Having a few seconds ‘in the bag’ gave me a little peace of mind. And in no time at all, 2 kilometers were complete. This second kilometre was completed at a 3:50 min/km pace. I was feeling good and about 5 seconds up on schedule.
However, as soon as I passed the halfway point, my legs began to remind me that they were tired, and I began to slow. I passed the 3rd kilometre marker at a pace of 3:54. Still ahead of schedule – just. I tried to convince myself that it was all in the mind, but my legs did not want to play ball. The run to the 4th kilometre point seemed to take an age, and I was very much relieved (and very much surprised) when I completed it in a time of 3:58 min/km. By my calculations, that gave me just under 4m30s to get my sub-20 minutes and if I could keep my current pace I could sneak in under 19m30s.
So with only a kilometre to go, I pushed as hard as I could. My legs were starting to feel like they were encased in concrete, and with just under 500 metres to the finish line, the road became a gentle downward incline which helped no end in completing the final k’ in a split of 3:53. Official race time 19:24.
Analysis
After more than 15 years I have finally broken though the sub-20 minute barrier. And by some margin 🙂
Below is a table illustrating the various predictions for my race, along with their error from my actual performance.
| Algorithm | Predicted Pace | Predicted Time | Error (seconds) | Error (percent) |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:26 | 22:10 | + 166 | + 14.3 % |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:10 | 20:50 | + 96 | + 7.4 % |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 3:58 | 19:52 | + 28 | + 2.4 % |
| Running Watch | 3:58 | 19:52 | + 28 | + 2.4 % |
| TrainAsONE | 3:53 | 19:27 | + 3 | + 0.3 % |
| Riegel (10 km Race) | 3:52 | 19:22 | -2 | – 0.2 % |
As expected, the Riegel estimates based upon my assessment runs were not accurate, predicting much slower finishing times than performed. Too inaccurate to be of any real use.
All the other predictions are within 2.5%. For my case, I’d say that this made them useful indicators for a 5km race. Though with Riegel (10 km Race) and TrainAsONE being only a fraction of a percent out, they were obviously much better predictions.
At -2 seconds, against TrainAsONE’s +3 seconds, Riegel (10 km Race) gave a more accurate prediction. However, that does not tell the whole story.
The Riegel (10 km Race) prediction was a best effort prediction which assumed specific training and preparation. It was not under the knowledge that I had just ran a hard 10 km race just 3 days previously. I believe that if I was fully rested I would have run quicker. TrainAsONE, however, was making its prediction under the knowledge that I had ran the prior 10 km race, which makes its 19:27 time even more impressive.
Finishing Up
Though I was not thinking it whilst racing, that was quite a fun race. It is a fast course that attracts lots of fast runners, and looking at the full race results if you just managed a sub 20 minute time, you would still have been outside of the top 30 %!
Now that my personal sub 20 minute goal has been obtained, I guess I need to look towards 19 minutes… My next (and last) 5 km race of the season is the Dereham 5k in five weeks time. Given the short time until that race and my other racing commitments, my current thought is just about trying to better 19:24 and getting as close to 19:15 as possible. Let’s see nearer the time.
As ever, a big thank you to the race organisers, volunteers and all those involved. A great race. Thank you.
Till next time.
