Will the conditions be favourable enough for me to achieve my predicted 4:00 min/km pace in tonight’s 5 mile road race?
Today is the 28th of July, and it’s an unusual Friday for me as it’s race-day. Tonight, I’ll be running the Worstead 5, a 5 mile race hosted by North Norfolk Beach Runners. However, despite the club’s name there is little chance of having to contend with sand and dunes as the race takes place inland in the small Norfolk village of Worstead. It will be my first time ever running a 5 mile race, let alone participating in this particular event, but I understand that it will be on typical Norfolk undulating roads, which should make for a relatively fast course. Interestingly, this race marks the beginning of the Worstead Festival celebrations, with live music, food and drinks after the race.
Since my last race, the Wroxham 5k just over 3 weeks ago, I feel that my running has slumped slightly. I’ve found it too easy to make excuses to cut-short my workouts. I’m not being harsh on myself for this as I’ve been consistently training and racing hard since the very beginning of the year. My big race of the year is still ahead of me (the Snowdon Marathon Eryi) and I believe that allowing myself a little downtime now will mentally prepare me for a final block of intense training. Despite the slump, I have still managed 4 hours or more of training per week, covering at least 40 kilometres – so not too bad.
Below is a table of predictions from various algorithms / sources.
| Algorithm | Pace (min/km) | Time (mm:ss) |
| Riegel (6 min Assessment) | 4:33 | 36:42 |
| Riegel (3.2 km Assessment) | 4:17 | 34:30 |
| Running Watch | 4:07 | 33:07 |
| Athlete Data Analysis Platform | 4:05 | 32.51 |
| TrainAsONE | 4:00 | 32:15 |
| Riegel (5 km Race) | 3:59 | 32:07 |
There are three main observations in the above predictions:
1. The Riegel Assessment calculations would seem fairly unlikely. From my recent 10 km races, a pace of approaching 4:00 min/km must be doable.
2. As per usual, both Running Watch and the Athlete Data Analysis Platform (ADAP) concur on a likely time. This is almost certainly due to their estimates being VO2max based. Interestingly, both these platforms indicate that since my last race at the beginning of the month my fitness has fallen. Maybe it has, but my course record equaling Parkrun last weekend suggests otherwise.
3. TrainAsONE and the Riegel calculation using my last race are in close agreement, with TrainAsONE placing me a mere 8 seconds slower over the 5 mile distance.
The forecast for tonight is ‘21° C with sunny intervals and a gentle breeze’. However, it’s predicted to be approaching 70% humidity. I’ll be targeting a 4:00 min/km pace, so fingers crossed the conditions are a little more favourable than forecast and don’t have too much of an effect on my performance.
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)
