Hot on the heels of the Humpty Dumpty 10k, we have the Wroxham 5k. How will the lack of recovery affect my performance?
It’s only been 3 days since my last race, and it’s already race day again!
Tonight it is the turn of the Norwich Road Runners to host the next race of the 2023 Sportlink Grand Prix series. This one being the Wroxham 5k, a 5km road race around the country roads to the north of Wroxham, Norfolk.
I have never run this race, however the event information indicates that it follows a lollipop route, taking place on a variety of paved and country roads. Additionally, my understanding is that it is a relatively flat and fast course, lending it to being good for personal records.
Below is a table of race time predictions from various algorithms / sources.
|Algorithm||Pace (min/km)||Time (mm:ss)|
|Riegel (6 min Assessment)||4:26||22:10|
|Riegel (3.2 km Assessment)||4:10||20:50|
|Athlete Data Analysis Platform||3:58||19:52|
|Riegel (10 km Race)||3:52||19:22|
I believe there are three interesting observations in the above predictions:
1. The Riegel Assessment calculations would seem fairly unlikely. From my recent 10 km races, going under 20 minutes should be possible.
2. Both Running Watch and the Athlete Data Analysis Platform (ADAP) concur on a likely time. The interesting part here is that with all my previous races, the ADAP has always predicted a time a good few percent quicker than Running Watch.
TrainAsONE estimates that I have a 25% chance of hitting Riegel’s 19:22 prediction
3. TrainAsONE and the Riegel calculation using my last race are very close, with TrainAsONE placing me a mere 5 seconds slower over the 5 km distance. My hunch is that the effects of my 10 km race just over 72 hours ago is a factor in this. Additionally, TrainAsONE estimates that I have a 25% chance of hitting the Riegel’s 19:22 prediction, so still good odds.
According to Running Watch I’m ‘well recovered’ (from my 10km race on Sunday) and ‘ready for action’. However, my legs whilst feeling good don’t quite feel race ready yet. From experience, I would say that I have 3 good kilometres in them. So it may be a case of grit and determination keeping them going for the last 2k. I guess we’ll know in a few hours time..
As we’ve seen with my last couple of races, the conditions will no doubt play a fairly significant role in how I perform. We know the course is meant to be ‘fast’ and the weather forecast currently is ‘sunny intervals with a moderate breeze and a temperature of 18° C’, so all is looking promising.
I’ve been wishing to go under 20 minutes for more years than I care to remember
For reference, my quickest recent 5 km (including Parkrun), is around 20 minutes 30 seconds. I’ve been wishing to go under 20 minutes for more years than I care to remember. If I achieve that, I’ll be very happy.
Wish me luck!
(I’ll let you know how it goes.)